The key to success in any investigation, in my opinion, is to be right, to be correct with your analysis of the facts and testimonies collected. You have to be correct and logical with your conclusions and you have to make recommendations, recommended corrective actions based solely on the conclusions. I would say that somewhere between 90-95% of the time that accident boards get the form of the investigation incorrect. They list conclusions without logically supported analysis, they come up with recommendations out of the clear blue sky with no support from the conclusions and they do not even collect all of the facts.
Case in point?
Take BEA's investigation of AF447. I have not read a single fact, analysis or conclusion so far that leads me to believe that BEA considered the role of AF Dispatch Office in the mishap.
However, consider this important information: it was AF Dispatch Office that had all of the latest metro satellite data at their disposal. That data showed massive thunderstorms in the flight path of AF447, thunderstorms rising to altitudes well above the Airbus operating ceiling. While AF Dispatch had this data, they did not connect having this data and their responsibility to minimize the safety risk to the Air France passengers onboard AF447, nor the crew nor their own asset, that is the aircraft. Air France Dispatch took no action to warn AF447 even though it was their specific regulatory requirement to do so since AF is a scheduled airline and AF447 was a dispatched flight.
If for an aeronautical experiment, a test crew were to be sent with any current airliner into a 60,000+ foot thunderstorm at night, I doubt any aircraft or test crew would escape the encounter unscathed.
In fact Airbus is not required to send any of their passenger aircraft into 60,000 foot thunderstorm in order to be certified by the FAA or any other airframe regulatory body.
Plus consider the idea that passenger injuries are likely to be sustained even if the airframe makes it out the other side of a 60,000 foot storm in one piece. Plus few passengers will speak well of the flight experience if they manage to live through being inside a 60,000+ ft thunderstorm. Many will vow to never fly again and of those, many will never fly again.
In my opinion, political pressure on an investigation is not really so much an issue as is the poorly handled investigation, collection of the facts, poor analysis, poor conclusions and poor tie in of recommendations. Political and party pressures are a fact of life. They are afraid, under stress, and will do anything to survive. But the truth can not be hidden. If it is not found, the board wasn't looking hard enough.
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